Ripple (XRP) forecast for Q4 2020: Bearish short term, bullish long term

Ripple (XRP), co-founded by Chris Larsen and Jed McCaleb, was created in 2012. It started at the ministry level, but came to life in March 2017, when most Ripple broker platforms jumped from $ 0.0005. To 0.07, which doesn’t seem like much, but it was the first sign that this cryptocurrency had established itself and that it could survive. 2017 has been a year of significant growth for digital currencies, with Bitcoin rising very close to $ 20,000 in December, down from $ 1,000 at the beginning of the year, while Ripple rose from $ 0.20 to $ 3.30, more than 15 times means growth. in a few months. But the it then made a strong rebound, as shown in the XRP charts below, and has not been able to turn bullish again on the larger timeframe charts since then. Moving averages continue to limit this cryptocurrency, ending upward backs and lowering the price. As a result, the technical picture doesn’t seem too promising for Ripple, but the funds seem a little more interesting to buyers, so let’s take a broader look at the factors that could affect XRP / USD and predict its future direction altcoin.

Ripple Live Chart


The general consensus is that the cryptocurrency market started in 2009 with Bitcoin. But interest sparked after the big boom of 2017, at the height of the “cryptocurrency gold rush”. However, that wave faded after Bitcoin reached $ 20,000 as a result of rumors of social commerce, and crypts retreated lower. The XRP / USDit also caused great suddenness for a few weeks before he retired. While the difference compared to other cryptocurrencies is that while most major cryptocurrencies have now continued their bullish trend, albeit in a more normal way than we saw in late 2017, the Ripple continues to decline. Since 2018, the peaks have been lower all the time, and shoppers are constantly pushing for new lows. The 100 SMA holds a lid on this pair and puts pressure on customers, as explained in the technical analysis below. Recently raised $ 200 million funds have brought attention back to this altcoin, and Ripple’s adaptation in the transactions has been promising, meaning the funds aren’t as bad as the technical charts show, but they don’t help Ripple as much at all.

Wave forecast: fourth quarter of 2020 Ripple forecast: 1 year Wavy forecast: 3 years
Price: $ 78-80 

Price controls: Covid-19, sense of risk, RBI prices


Price: $ 78-80 

Price controls: Covid-19, sense of risk, RBI prices


Price: $ 88-90

Price controls: Price controls: Inflation, Economic recovery, Market development, RBI actions, Inflation

Wave price forecast for the next five years

Digital currencies are affected by a number of factors that can be divided into four categories; 1. The basics of each digital currency 2. Specifications 3. The mood of the cryptocurrency market as a whole and 4. The performance of the USD, which is becoming increasingly important, especially this year. Ripple held a successful fundraising event in late 2019 that reversed this cryptocurrency bullish for several months, but then the broader crypto market sentiment caught up in March as the coronavirus erupted and the USD joined the party, helping the XRP / USD triple. While the technical picture doesn’t seem too promising for Ripple, the basics look brighter in the long run, as the latest news has shown.

The latest developments from Ripple

Ripple Labs is the parent company of Ripple, which launched in 2012 as OpenCoin. As of August 2020, Ripple is the fourth largest altcoin in terms of market capitalization. It provides a medium for financial institutions to transfer value globally between different fiat currencies. It is basically the bridge currency behind Ripple’s liquidity and xRapid exchange product. XRP Ledger is the DLT that provides verifiable XRP accounts and is open to everyone. So one of the advantages of Ripple is that it is very adaptable to the general public as it is both a digital currency and a payment network.

The Peer-to-Peer project is overdue                                                     

Speaking of the adaptive currency, in 2019, financial institutions such as UBS Group AG, Barclays Plc, Credit Suisse and Banco de Santander tried to create a company. The institutions funded the £ 50 million project. The idea was to offer a peer-to-peer solution for tokenized currencies. The company, called Fnality, aims to offer banks the solution they need, namely the Utility Settlement Coin . But the attempt has now been delayed as they await approval from the authority. Rhomaios Ram, CEO of Fnality International, says the earliest response time from regulators will be in the first half of 2021, which is almost a year, and it’s not even the last step.

$ 20 million was raised

Ripple had a good year in 2019. In fact, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called it “the strongest year of growth to date”. The RippleNet payment network expanded to more than 300 customers in 2019 and also partnered with MoneyGram. Ripple initially made an investment of $ 30 million, later buying $ 20 million in shares of MoneyGram for $ 4.10, one-third of the market price. This represents a 10% stake in MoneyGram. The money transfer company, on the other hand, agreed to use Ripple’s products for cross-border settlements.

It was a nice move for the Ripple executive, but that’s not all. Ripple raised $ 200 million in funds in late 2019, with Japan’s SBI Holdings and Route 66 Ventures VC participating in the Series-C funding round led by alternative asset investment company Tetragon. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said: “We are in a strong financial position to deliver on our vision. As the growth of others in blockchain space slowed or even stopped, in 2019 we accelerated our momentum and our industry leaders. “In fact, 2019 was basically a good year for Ripple, and the mood improved for this altcoin, despite the delay in the Utility Settlement Coin project.

Market commentary


  • The Currency Exchange Office (OCC) has appointed Brian Brooks as Acting Auditor. Brooks plans to introduce a new pay charter in hopes of creating a single federal framework for offering tech companies the services traditionally offered by banks. The OCC also issued an advanced notice on the proposed rulemaking, requesting comments on, among other things, the acceptance of cryptographic activities by U.S. banks.
  • J. Christopher Giancarlo, former CFTC president, has published an article explaining why XRP should not be considered safe under U.S. law and court precedent. He is also leading the Digital Dollar project, which has published a White Paper on a proposal for a joint public-private initiative by the US Federal Reserve to create a digital currency (CBDC).
  • The Office of Consumer Financial Protection (CFPB) has published its final transfer rule, which includes how digital devices, especially XRP through ODL, can significantly reduce the cost of cross-border transfers.
  • The Indian Ministry of Finance has proposed a legal ban on cryptocurrencies and the imposition of severe penalties on citizens who use cryptocurrencies. This follows that the Reserve Bank of India has previously issued a clarification statement that Indian commercial banks can provide banking services to traders and firms trading in cryptocurrencies.
  • The South African Intergovernmental Finance Task Force (IFWG) has issued a resolution proposing a strict cryptographic framework for the region.
  • SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has been appointed to another five-year term at the securities agency. Caroline Crenshaw has also been appointed to fill the Commission’s democratic vacancy. Their confirmatory hearing is scheduled for July 2020.
  • The EU intends to create a new regulatory framework for digital assets, which will extend unregulated assets to the stock.


  • Mac Investor Paul Tudor Jones bought Bitcoin as hedge against inflation and said his fund could hold a low single-digit percentage of its assets in Bitcoin futures.
  • JPMorgan offered a bank account for cryptocurrency exchanges starting with Gemini and Coinbase.
  • 36% of the nearly 800 institutional respondents to the Fidelity survey said they have digital devices or derivatives.
  • The New York Department of Financial Services has given BitLicense to Eris X.
  • Users withdrew more than $ 220 million from the stock exchanges at BTC before and after the May halving.


  • China has completed the background architecture development of its digital yuan. The rapid development of the digital yuan revolves around the potential severe influence and leadership in the Chinese payment industry.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a pilot program to test its new digital yuan with 19 local businesses, including American chains Starbucks, Subway and McDonald’s.
  • PayPal and Venmo plan to add cryptographic sales to their platforms.
  • Brazil suspended the WhatsApp payment service just a week after its first launch.
  • Visa has signed a partnership agreement with Safaricom’s M-Pesa.
  • Binance has launched a cryptographic payment application in Nigeria.
  • Revolut has announced that it will make the cryptocurrency available to all seven million customers.

Covid-19 atmosphere and relationship with Bitcoin and Crypto Market

The coronavirus has also affected the digital currency market. The outbreak of the virus in Europe and the United States was not very well received by this market, and we saw a major collapse from mid-February to mid-March. This shows that digital currencies will not hold back pressure in times of crisis, as hoped. The Ripple also collapsed, with the XRP / USD falling from $ 0.35 to $ 0.11, losing two-thirds of its value.

 The value of Bitcoin has risen since February, before the fall

This was in line with the wider crypto market, but the recovery has not been exactly in line with the market since. While the value of Ethereum more than quintupled from its March low and Bitcoin nearly quadrupled to $ 12,500 , XRP / USD has not yet offset the collapse losses and has risen less than threefold. This means that there is some discrepancy between Ripple and the rest of the cryptocurrency market, including Bitocin. Basically, Ripple lags behind in bullish times and will likely be among the first to turn bearish when the bullish momentum runs out, which is already happening.

Ripple-USD correlation

Prior to 2017, the chart for Ripple and most cryptocurrencies was a straight line, so there is no point in looking at the history of XRP / USD before 2017. Compared to the DXY USD index, we can see that there was a sharp decline for the latter in 2017, which accelerated from May to August. This lasted until the end of the year. From May to July, we saw a strong increase in the XRP / USD, which was correlated with a decrease in DXY, but then the growth stopped, which means that the correlation was lost. December 2017 and the first quarter of 2018 were extraordinary for the crypto market as a whole, with most digital currencies turning higher and then lower, so we can’t talk about correlation. But from the second quarter of 2018 to early 2020, Ripple continues to decline, while DXY shows a steady upward trend, again showing a correlation. This year, the correlation continued to rise, with the USD jumping during the initial panic in February and March, then turning lower and remaining barren until the end of August. The XRP / USD underwent a significant decline in February and early March, as already explained, but rose until the end of August and has since retreated lower. So the correlation between Ripple and the USD has increased, which means we need to compare both instruments when trading Ripple, but we still need to see if the correlation persists after the coronavirus. and has since retreated lower. So the correlation between Ripple and the USD has increased, which means we need to compare both instruments when trading Ripple, but we still need to see if the correlation persists after the coronavirus. and has since retreated lower. So the correlation between Ripple and the USD has increased, which means we need to compare both instruments when trading Ripple, but we still need to see if the correlation persists after the coronavirus.

SMAs keep the bear trend alive

Because the crypto market doesn’t exist for too long, larger timeframe charts, such as monthly charts, don’t help much in the analysis. The only thing I see there is that 20 SMAs (gray) have been driving the price of XRP / USD since November 2018, when it rose above that level. He has punched this level now and again, for example in the last two months, but the price now seems to have turned back below it, leaving the picture barren. With the 20 SMA acting as a resistor, the diagram setting seems bearish. The XRP / USD developed a doji candlestick in August as a bearish direction signal after the July ascent, and this candlestick has so far been followed by a bearish candlestick in September, confirming the bearish reversal pattern.

The 200 SMA keeps the trend in the weekly time frame

On the weekly graph, the same moving average functioned as some form of support during 2017, before the “gold rush” of December 2018. For a time in February 2018, after the big turnaround, it again provided support, and for two weeks it again works as support with 50 SMA (yellow). The 50 SMA has resisted a few times, but is also currently operating as a grant. However, the final resistance since December 2018 has been 100 SMA (green). It became resistance immediately within the month after it was broken from above, and then the strong setback stopped in May last year, deterred shoppers in February 2020, and has provoked resistance again since July. So 100 SMA keeps XRP / USD, and the trend here continues to decline, unlike most other cryptocurrencies. But times are not normal now and the other 2 MA are from below,